The weather’s been unpredictable lately — hot one day, chilly the next. But it looks like this year’s Shuka Sho will be blessed with clear skies and perfect autumn sunshine.
Held at Kyoto Racecourse over 2000 meters on turf, the Shuka Sho (G1) marks the final leg of Japan’s Filly Triple Crown. This year’s lineup is stellar, featuring both the Oaks winner and the Oka Sho (Japanese 1000 Guineas) winner — a true clash of champions.
In this article, we’ll go over:
📊 Key trends from the past 10 years
🏇 Notable horses and potential risks after the post draw
🎯 My final predictions (tentative)
Use this as a guide for your betting strategy or just to enjoy the race more deeply!
🧭 10-Year Trends: What History Tells Us
🔹 Popularity and Performance
Popularity
Record (Win-2nd-3rd-Others)
Note
1st favorite
5-0-1-4
50% win rate — dominant!
2nd favorite
0-3-2-5
Consistent, but rarely wins
3rd favorite
3-1-2-4
30% win rate — solid record
4th favorite
2-2-0-6
Decent, 40% in the money
5th favorite
0-3-1-6
Often in contention but can’t seal it
6th or lower
0-1-4-116
Struggles badly
👉 Every winner in the past 10 years has been among the top five favorites. This is not a race for deep long shots.
🔹 Performance by Previous Race
Previous Race
Record (10 yrs)
Note
Oaks
6-1-3-16
6 winners — the royal route
Rose Stakes
1-3-5-47
Declining trend recently
Shion Stakes
3-5-0-35
Strong place rate
Others
0-1-1-14
Generally uncompetitive
👉 Horses coming straight from the Oaks or those placing well in the Shion Stakes tend to dominate.
🔹 Running Style Trends
Style
Record (10 yrs)
Note
Front-runner
0-1-0-9
Rarely holds on
Prominent/Pressing
3-0-2-28
Somewhat favorable
Stalker/Closer
7-6-7-56
Strongly preferred
Deep closer
0-3-1-48
Often left with too much to do
👉 Closers have the clear edge. Front-runners and deep closers are historically disadvantaged.
🔹 Post Position Trends
Inner posts (1–4) are slightly advantageous
Particularly, Post 3 has a good record
Outer posts (7–8) tend to struggle — though a strong finisher can overcome it
As always, consider the day’s track bias and pace scenario.
🌸 Main Contenders
◉ Kamnyac (8 Draw – Post 17)
The Oaks champion and arguably the top filly of her generation. She comes straight from the Oaks — a proven “royal route” pattern that’s produced six winners in ten years.
Last race: Japanese Oaks – 1st (Tokyo, 2400m)
Trend: Oaks-to-Shuka Sho route = 6 wins in 10 years
Post: Outer gate (17), but with her strong closing kick, not a big concern
Her turn of foot is genuine G1 class. If the race unfolds at a solid pace, a Filly Double Crown is within reach.
◎ Reasons for Selection:
Perfect blend of form and historical fit
Closer bias suits her running style
Capable of overcoming a wide draw through sheer class
○ Danon Fair Lady (3 Draw – Post 5)
Ran a strong race in the Oaks and has likely matured since. This time, she draws a perfect middle gate and can control the pace from a good position.
A reliable front-runner — the main threat to Kamnyac.
▲ Sena Style (2 Draw – Post 4)
Draws ideally on the inside and has shown consistency with her late acceleration. Kyoto’s inner course should suit her perfectly.
If she finds a gap on the rail turning for home, she could surprise the top two.
⚠️ Underrated or Value Contenders
△ Teresa (1 Draw – Post 2)
The rail draw could be a blessing. If she saves ground and gets a clear run late, she could sneak into the money at big odds.
△ Kerry Fred Ask (5 Draw – Post 9)
Has finishing power when things go her way. Not among the top favorites, but a genuine dark horse if the pace heats up.
△ Embroiderly (6 Draw – Post 11)
The Oka Sho (1000 Guineas) winner, and still a top-class filly. If the race becomes a test of pure speed in the straight, she’s the one who could spoil Kamnyac’s party.
💡 Final Summary
Mark
Horse
Post
Key Points
◉
Kamnyac
8 (17)
Oaks winner aiming for her second crown
○
Danon Fair Lady
3 (5)
Strong pace control and consistency
▲
Sena Style
2 (4)
Ideal inside draw
△
Teresa
1 (2)
Rail-skimming late run possible
△
Kerry Fred Ask
5 (9)
Hidden finishing power
△
Embroiderly
6 (11)
Classic winner’s revenge chance
🎯 Key Takeaways
All past 10 winners came from the Top 5 favorites
Oaks direct entrants dominate (6 wins)
Closers and mid-pack runners perform best
Avoid pure front-runners and deep closers
👉 Kamnyac is the logical, data-backed centerpiece. Pair her with proven performers who fit the pace and draw trends.
🌅 Final Thoughts
The spring queen returns to defend her throne. Can Kamnyac repeat her Oaks brilliance and claim her second G1? Or will a new heroine rise in Kyoto’s autumn sunshine?
Whatever the outcome, the 2025 Shuka Sho promises to be a race to remember.
This week’s G2 Ireland Trophy saw its first-ever champion, Lavanda, signaling the arrival of the autumn races for fillies.
And now, we finally come to one of the most anticipated races of the season — the Shuka Sho (Shūka-shō).
Let’s take a look at what place this race holds in the world of Japanese horse racing.
🍂 What Is the Shuka Sho? — The Final Chapter of the Filly Triple Crown
The Shuka Sho is a Grade 1 race exclusively for three-year-old fillies, and it serves as the final leg of Japan’s Filly Triple Crown, following the Oka Sho (Japanese 1000 Guineas) and the Yushun Himba (Japanese Oaks).
It’s held at Kyoto Racecourse over 2000 meters on turf (inner course) — a track known for its short stretch, where not only speed but also tactical positioning, rhythm, and race sense play crucial roles.
Since its inception in 1996, the Shuka Sho has been a stage where proven spring stars clash with rapidly improving summer contenders — a thrilling showdown between completeness and growth.
🏇 What Makes the 2025 Shuka Sho Unique?
📅 Race Details
Date: Sunday, October 19, 2025
Venue: Kyoto Racecourse (Turf 2000m)
Grade: G1
Entries: Many top-class fillies from the classic trail are expected to compete.
🔍 Key Points to Watch
1. A Clear Battle Among the Top Contenders This year features a classic setup — the Oaks winner, the Oka Sho winner, and top trial performers. It’s shaping up as a two-horse rivalry with dangerous challengers waiting in the wings.
2. The Spring vs. Summer Dynamic The contrast between spring’s proven elites and summer’s late bloomers is more striking than ever. Will maturity prevail, or will momentum cause an upset?
3. Strategic Planning Is Key How trainers manage travel, conditioning, and race prep will be decisive. The balance between fitness and freshness could determine victory.
4. Kyoto in Autumn — The Wild Card October weather in Kyoto can be unpredictable. Track conditions could swing results dramatically, making reading the turf a vital skill for success.
⚠️ Notable Contenders (2025 Edition)
Horse
Strengths / Highlights
Concerns / Challenges
🌻 Kamunyak
Oaks winner. Outstanding stamina and raw ability — among the best of her generation.
Inner-course Kyoto may not suit her perfectly; pace and positioning will be critical.
🌸 Embroidery
Oka Sho winner. Has developed impressively since spring; stable reports strong confidence.
2000m distance and temperament may be issues.
Trial Performers (e.g. Shion Stakes group)
Late bloomers who’ve made significant progress over the summer. May surprise with their momentum.
Slightly behind top-tier fillies in experience and polish.
This year’s theme is clear: Will the spring stars reaffirm their dominance, or will the summer risers overturn the order? The balance of power has rarely been this clearly defined.
🌸 From Spring to Autumn — A Story of Growth
Oka Sho winners are often blessed with brilliance and acceleration, but the Shuka Sho’s 2000m demands more than speed. Even top-class fillies must prove they’ve matured — both mentally and physically — over the summer.
Meanwhile, it’s not uncommon for underdogs from the spring to flourish later in the year. In recent times, we’ve seen such horses rise dramatically in autumn, seizing the final crown of their generation.
In short, the Shuka Sho is a race that tests growth and resilience.
🐎 Summary — The Stage for Growth and Redemption
The 2025 Shuka Sho embodies the essence of classic racing — a confrontation between proven champions and emerging challengers.
We’ll witness:
The reassertion of spring’s queens,
The breakthrough of summer’s improvers, and
The drama born from trainers’ strategies and horses’ conditions.
All these threads will weave together into a quintessential autumn showdown at Kyoto.
So, who will claim the final jewel of the Filly Triple Crown in 2025? Let’s keep following and discussing our predictions together!
