10月 18, 2025
2025 Shuka-Sho
The weather’s been unpredictable lately — hot one day, chilly the next.
But it looks like this year’s Shuka Sho will be blessed with clear skies and perfect autumn sunshine.
Held at Kyoto Racecourse over 2000 meters on turf, the Shuka Sho (G1) marks the final leg of Japan’s Filly Triple Crown.
This year’s lineup is stellar, featuring both the Oaks winner and the Oka Sho (Japanese 1000 Guineas) winner — a true clash of champions.
In this article, we’ll go over:
- 📊 Key trends from the past 10 years
- 🏇 Notable horses and potential risks after the post draw
- 🎯 My final predictions (tentative)
Use this as a guide for your betting strategy or just to enjoy the race more deeply!
🧭 10-Year Trends: What History Tells Us
🔹 Popularity and Performance
| Popularity | Record (Win-2nd-3rd-Others) | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 1st favorite | 5-0-1-4 | 50% win rate — dominant! |
| 2nd favorite | 0-3-2-5 | Consistent, but rarely wins |
| 3rd favorite | 3-1-2-4 | 30% win rate — solid record |
| 4th favorite | 2-2-0-6 | Decent, 40% in the money |
| 5th favorite | 0-3-1-6 | Often in contention but can’t seal it |
| 6th or lower | 0-1-4-116 | Struggles badly |
👉 Every winner in the past 10 years has been among the top five favorites.
This is not a race for deep long shots.
🔹 Performance by Previous Race
| Previous Race | Record (10 yrs) | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Oaks | 6-1-3-16 | 6 winners — the royal route |
| Rose Stakes | 1-3-5-47 | Declining trend recently |
| Shion Stakes | 3-5-0-35 | Strong place rate |
| Others | 0-1-1-14 | Generally uncompetitive |
👉 Horses coming straight from the Oaks or those placing well in the Shion Stakes tend to dominate.
🔹 Running Style Trends
| Style | Record (10 yrs) | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Front-runner | 0-1-0-9 | Rarely holds on |
| Prominent/Pressing | 3-0-2-28 | Somewhat favorable |
| Stalker/Closer | 7-6-7-56 | Strongly preferred |
| Deep closer | 0-3-1-48 | Often left with too much to do |
👉 Closers have the clear edge.
Front-runners and deep closers are historically disadvantaged.
🔹 Post Position Trends
- Inner posts (1–4) are slightly advantageous
- Particularly, Post 3 has a good record
- Outer posts (7–8) tend to struggle — though a strong finisher can overcome it
As always, consider the day’s track bias and pace scenario.
🌸 Main Contenders
◉ Kamnyac (8 Draw – Post 17)
The Oaks champion and arguably the top filly of her generation.
She comes straight from the Oaks — a proven “royal route” pattern that’s produced six winners in ten years.
- Last race: Japanese Oaks – 1st (Tokyo, 2400m)
- Trend: Oaks-to-Shuka Sho route = 6 wins in 10 years
- Post: Outer gate (17), but with her strong closing kick, not a big concern
Her turn of foot is genuine G1 class.
If the race unfolds at a solid pace, a Filly Double Crown is within reach.
◎ Reasons for Selection:
- Perfect blend of form and historical fit
- Closer bias suits her running style
- Capable of overcoming a wide draw through sheer class
○ Danon Fair Lady (3 Draw – Post 5)
Ran a strong race in the Oaks and has likely matured since.
This time, she draws a perfect middle gate and can control the pace from a good position.
A reliable front-runner — the main threat to Kamnyac.
▲ Sena Style (2 Draw – Post 4)
Draws ideally on the inside and has shown consistency with her late acceleration.
Kyoto’s inner course should suit her perfectly.
If she finds a gap on the rail turning for home, she could surprise the top two.
⚠️ Underrated or Value Contenders
△ Teresa (1 Draw – Post 2)
The rail draw could be a blessing.
If she saves ground and gets a clear run late, she could sneak into the money at big odds.
△ Kerry Fred Ask (5 Draw – Post 9)
Has finishing power when things go her way.
Not among the top favorites, but a genuine dark horse if the pace heats up.
△ Embroiderly (6 Draw – Post 11)
The Oka Sho (1000 Guineas) winner, and still a top-class filly.
If the race becomes a test of pure speed in the straight, she’s the one who could spoil Kamnyac’s party.
💡 Final Summary
| Mark | Horse | Post | Key Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| ◉ | Kamnyac | 8 (17) | Oaks winner aiming for her second crown |
| ○ | Danon Fair Lady | 3 (5) | Strong pace control and consistency |
| ▲ | Sena Style | 2 (4) | Ideal inside draw |
| △ | Teresa | 1 (2) | Rail-skimming late run possible |
| △ | Kerry Fred Ask | 5 (9) | Hidden finishing power |
| △ | Embroiderly | 6 (11) | Classic winner’s revenge chance |
🎯 Key Takeaways
- All past 10 winners came from the Top 5 favorites
- Oaks direct entrants dominate (6 wins)
- Closers and mid-pack runners perform best
- Avoid pure front-runners and deep closers
👉 Kamnyac is the logical, data-backed centerpiece.
Pair her with proven performers who fit the pace and draw trends.
🌅 Final Thoughts
The spring queen returns to defend her throne.
Can Kamnyac repeat her Oaks brilliance and claim her second G1?
Or will a new heroine rise in Kyoto’s autumn sunshine?
Whatever the outcome, the 2025 Shuka Sho promises to be a race to remember.
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