11月 28, 2025
🏇 Let’s take a look at the course suitability and past performance of all 18 horses! [Finding the Key Horse]
Hello everyone 😃
The post positions were unexpectedly announced on Thursday — that was a surprise, haha.
Let’s dive into analyzing a hot race that will blow away the winter cold ✌️
This time, we’ll be doing a data refresh, reviewing data including the post positions, and taking a closer look at potential key horses.
Here’s the table of contents.
[:contents]
Let’s go !!!
🎯 date
Here is the data from the previous analysis.
Since I’ll be adding to that information, please give it a read if you haven’t checked the previous post yet.
Also, if you want to check the race form (uma-bashira), please refer to the one provided by the JRA.
https://hatenablog-parts.com/embed?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.jra.go.jp%2FJRADB%2FaccessD.html%3FCNAME%3Dpw01dde0105202505081220251130%2FEBwww.jra.go.jp
Now, let’s add to the data. First, here’s what it looks like when we include the post positions that were not filled in last time.
| pp | No. | horse name | ♂/♀ age | grades | solodarity | multiple win | mark |
| 1 | 1 | Justin Palace | ♂6 | 【5-3-1-7】 | 50% | 56% | ◎ |
| 2 | Croix du Nord | ♂３ | ◎ | ||||
| 2 | 3 | Cosmo Kuranda | ♂4 | 【1-0-4-13】 | 6% | 27% | ○ |
| 4 | Deep Monster | ♂7 | ○ | ||||
| 3 | 5 | Sunrise Earth | ♂4 | 【3-1-1-15】 | 20% | 25% | ◎ |
| 6 | Ho O Biscuits | ♂5 | ◎ | ||||
| 4 | 7 | Danon Beluga | ♂6 | 【0-2-0-18】 | 10% | 10% | △ |
| 8 | Calandagan | 4 | △ | ||||
| 5 | 9 | Seiun Hades | ♂6 | 【0-2-0-18】 | 10% | 10% | △ |
| 10 | Struve | 6 | △ | ||||
| 6 | 11 | Admire Terra | ♂4 | 【0-2-0-18】 | 10% | 10% | △ |
| 12 | Yoho Lake | ♂7 | △ | ||||
| 7 | 13 | Brade Weg | ♀5 | 【1-1-1-21】 | 8% | 12% | ○ |
| 14 | Danon Decile | ♂4 | ○ | ||||
| 15 | Masqurade Ball | ♂3 | ○ | ||||
| 8 | 16 | shin Emperor | ♂4 | 【0-0-2-23】 | 0% | 7% | × |
| 17 | Durezza | ♂5 | × | ||||
| 18 | Tastiera | ♂5 | × |
And now, let’s overlay it with the data from the previous analysis.
| pp | No. | horse name | ♂/♀ age | mark | pp mark | last race | last time |
| 1 | 1 | Justin Palace | ♂6 | × | ◎ | ◎ | ○ |
| 2 | Croix du Nord | ♂３ | ◎ | ◎ | × | × | |
| 2 | 3 | Cosmo Kuranda | ♂4 | ○ | ○ | ◎ | × |
| 4 | Deep Monster | ♂7 | × | ○ | ○ | ◎ | |
| 3 | 5 | Sunrise Earth | ♂4 | ○ | ◎ | ○ | ○ |
| 6 | Ho O Biscuits | ♂5 | ○ | ◎ | ◎ | × | |
| 4 | 7 | Danon Beluga | ♂6 | × | △ | △ | × |
| 8 | Calandagan | 4 | △ | △ | × | ◎ | |
| 5 | 9 | Seiun Hades | ♂6 | × | △ | ◎ | × |
| 10 | Struve | 6 | × | △ | ○ | △ | |
| 6 | 11 | Admire Terra | ♂4 | ○ | △ | ○ | △ |
| 12 | Yoho Lake | ♂7 | × | △ | ○ | ○ | |
| 7 | 13 | Brade Weg | ♀5 | ○ | ○ | ◎ | × |
| 14 | Danon Decile | ♂4 | ○ | ○ | × | △ | |
| 15 | Masqurade Ball | ♂3 | ◎ | ○ | ◎ | ◎ | |
| 8 | 16 | shin Emperor | ♂4 | ○ | × | × | × |
| 17 | Durezza | ♂5 | ○ | × | ○ | × | |
| 18 | Tastiera | ♂5 | ○ | × | ◎ | × |
Data is only data. In my case, it doesn’t always lead directly to the final conclusion.
That’s because horse racing is a competition between living beings — horses and humans.
Let me say this in advance: I will not be using (15) Masquerade Ball as my key horse.
With that in mind, please enjoy the next section.
🐎 Full-field analysis
This time, we’ll be checking three key points: data, course suitability, and past performance!
Performance will be evaluated based on turf races at Tokyo 2000–2400m.
I’ll be writing about all the horses, so it’s a long one. Feel free to skip to the horses you’re interested in, haha.
⚪️ 1. Justin Palace — 6 years old / Jockey: C. Demuro
- Data: △
- Course suitability: ○
- Performance: △
He is a candidate for the supporting roles (a “himokouho”). His post position and course suitability are very good. His jockey’s brother also had a strong performance recently in the Tenno Sho (Autumn), finishing second on Museum M2.
Last year, due to Do Deuce’s influence, the race turned into a slow pace, and Justin Palace was buried in the pack at the fourth corner — very unfavorable conditions.
This year, I expect the pace to be high to mid. This horse performs best when he has an inside draw and a mid-pace flow.
Including him as a “himo” will let you watch the race with peace of mind.
⚪️ 2. Croix du Nord — 3 years old / Jockey: Tomoichi Kitamura
- Data: △
- Course suitability: ◎
- Performance: ◎
He is a major contender. Needless to say, he is the 2025 Derby winner at Tokyo.
People may comment about his training, condition, etc., but take a moment and think calmly.
This horse initially had the Arima Kinen direct route in consideration. Choosing to run in the Japan Cup instead likely means they’re aiming to avoid being heavily marked — and the fact that he’s running in great physical condition supports that.
In the Satsuki Sho, he lost because the marking on him was too strict, forcing him to move early.
In the Derby, there were no front-runners, which allowed him to take the initiative as a forwardly-placed horse — a big advantage.
In this race, there will be five horses ahead during the first 1000m, and three of them will fade.
He has the ability to accelerate from there, so he is a strong contender.
The only reason he’s not my key horse is because my key horse is simply stronger.
⚫️ 3. Cosmo Kuranda — 4 years old / Jockey: Tan’nai
- Data: ×
- Course suitability: ×
- Performance: △
I’m eliminating him. I believe he has passed his peak. Also, up until today, he has never finished in the top three on the Tokyo turf. If anything, he performs better at Nakayama than Tokyo.
⚫️ 4. Deep Monster — 7 years old / Jockey: Matsuyama
- Data: △
- Course suitability: △
- Performance: ×
I’m eliminating him. His age is a major concern. The data also isn’t convincing enough, so I’m cutting him this time. Although his final workout numbers are the best he’s ever had, compared to the rest of the field, I find him difficult to include.
🔴 5. Sunrise Earth — 4 years old / Jockey: Ikezoe
- Data: ○
- Course suitability: ○
- Performance: ○
He’s a “himo” candidate. For this horse, who usually competes in the 2200–3000m range, the main concern is his gate behavior.
Based on his past performances too, I think he fits well as a supporting pick.
For a front-running horse, this post position is a positive factor 🎵
🔴 6. Ho O Biscuits — 5 years old / Jockey: Iwata (father)
- Data: ○
- Course suitability: ○
- Performance: △
He’s a problem child. Personally, I’ll include him as a himo candidate, though there are reasons to cut him.
I don’t get the impression that he can win a G1. But he does have good suitability for Tokyo, especially around the 2000m distance.
Whether he can handle 2400m is the big question.
In his last race, the Tenno Sho (Autumn), who could have predicted such a slow pace? His strength in high-pace situations couldn’t be used at all due to the ride.
This time, although there are no clear front-runners, if we expect a high-pace scenario, including this horse is an option.
I’ll be thinking about him right up until the final moments.
🔵 7. Danon Beluga — 6 years old / Jockey: Sasaki
- Data: ×
- Course suitability: △
- Performance: ×
I’m eliminating him. His age and his last race performance are both weak points.
🔵 8. Carandagan — 4-year-old gelding / Jockey: M. Barzalona
- Data: ◎
- Course suitability: ?
- Performance: ◎
Another problem child. To get straight to the point, I’m cutting him.
The reason is that I expect a high-pace, fast-track race this time.
Also, there’s a difference between overseas and Japanese racecourses. Looking at Karandagan’s races, he performs best in slow-paced races or on soft ground — these are his clear strengths. If he runs, he’s admirable, but I’ll eliminate him.
🟡 9. Seiun Hades — 6 years old / Jockey: Tsumura
- Data: △
- Course suitability: ○
- Performance: △
I’m cutting him. As I mentioned in my Tenno Sho (Autumn) review, his course suitability is excellent, but his performance in G1-level races is a bit lacking.
🟡 10. Struve — 6-year-old gelding / Jockey: Sugawara
- Data: △
- Course suitability: △
- Performance: ×
I’m cutting him as well, for the same reasons as above.
🟢 11. Admire Terra — 4 years old / Jockey: Kawada
- Data: ○
- Course suitability: ○
- Performance: △
He’s okay as a minor pick, but I’m cutting him this time. His condition is declining, and his movements over the past three preparatory races were weak.
🟢 12. Yoho Lake — 7 years old / Jockey: Iwata
- Data: △
- Course suitability: △
- Performance: ○
I’m eliminating him. His age is a critical factor.
🟠 13. Brady Weg— 5 years old / Jockey: Tom Marquand
- Data: △
- Course suitability: ◎
- Performance: ○
He’s a himo candidate. Actually, this horse excels at middle distances. He’s been forced to run mile races in the past, giving the impression he couldn’t win, but I believe that was a misjudgment.
This is his last run. I want to see the pride of the Canaloua lineage shine. The only filly in the field — a passion bet.
🟠 14. Danon Decail — 4 years old / Jockey: Tosaki
- Data: ○
- Course suitability: ◎
- Performance: ◎
He’s my key horse. A 2024 Derby winner and a returnee from overseas.
Reasons for making him the key horse:
- His workout time is his personal best +0.1s, showing he’s at his peak.
- High potential to compete both from the front or from behind.
- Post position is also favorable.
I expect a head-to-head showdown with Masquerade Ball.
🟠 15. Masquerade Ball
- Data: ?
- Course suitability: ?
- Performance: ?
His post position is good, but there’s an issue: he’s a closer.
With this post and running style, it’s a disadvantage.
He could win in a slow pace like the Tenno Sho (Autumn), but this race is expected to be high-paced, making it a big disadvantage. I’ll consider him as an opponent candidate.
🟣 16. Shin Emperor — 4 years old / Jockey: Sakai
- Data: ○
- Course suitability: ◎
- Performance: △
He’s a himo candidate, mainly based on his performance last year.
🟣 17. Durezza — 5 years old / Jockey: Pushan
- Data: ○
- Course suitability: ○
- Performance: △
He’s a dark horse candidate. Same reasoning as above, but his running style gives him a slight disadvantage, so I’m inclined to cut him.
🟣 18. Tastiella — 5 years old / Jockey: Damien Lane
- Data: ○
- Course suitability: ○
- Performance: ○
He’s a himo candidate. 2023 Derby winner, strong and capable.
However, this generation has strong quirks. Their preferred racecourses are very specific (e.g., Bellagio Opera).
Tastiella likes Tokyo Racecourse, but the concern is the outside post.
🙆 summary
◎ Danon Decail
○ Masquerade Ball / Croix du Nord
△ Justin Palace / Sunrise Earth / Ho O Biscuits
Shin Emperor / Durezza / Tastiella
Dark horse (穴) Brady Weg
This is the current lineup.
I’ll update if there are any changes.
Good night, everyone.
— Yukiya